They even picked up a seat in a district that broke for Trump

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Posted by admin | Posted in Bär News | Posted on 11-09-2014

Canada Goose Outlet Dave Brat and Barbara Comstock Canada Goose Outlet

canada goose store In Virginia, Canada Goose sale Bitecofer pulls no punches: Republican Reps. Dave Brat and Barbara Comstock will cheap Canada Goose lose. And the state’s other race to watch, the 2ndDistrict, is a pure toss up. canada goose store

canada goose deals And for Republicans, the bad news looks like it will continue for as long as Donald Trump is in the White House. canada goose deals

Canada Goose Parka Part of the reason is „negative partisanship“ the negative attitudes, even extending outside of politics that members of the major political parties Canada Goose Parka have toward the other party’s candidates. The negative feelings are stronger among those supporting the party out of power. All that negativity keeps them motivated. Canada Goose Parka

canada goose clearance sale Republicans employed that negativity Canada Goose Coats On Sale to great advantage during the Obama years. As Bitecofer notes, Democratic complacency combined with GOP outrage allowed the GOP to „over perform their share of the uk canada goose outlet https://www.topparka.ca electorate by 5 points in the 2010 midterms and 10 points in 2014 canada goose uk outlet in midterms.“ canada goose clearance sale

Canada Goose online And independents really aren’t the canada goose coats prime movers they are thought canada goose coats on sale to uk canada goose be.“It is negative partisanship among opposition party voters that drives the midterm effect,“ Bitecofer says, „not movement Canada Goose Jackets of independent voters back and forth between the parties.“ Canada Goose online

cheap Canada Goose The deciding factor for Democrats is getting their own partisans to canada goose black friday sale the polls: cheap Canada Goose

buy canada goose jacket Democrats lose Independents quite often, and in elections they win and they lose because they have a population advantage in many places and when their partisans turn out in high numbers, it trumps the combined loss of Republicans and canada goose Independents, assuming they don’t lose the canadian goose jacket latter group by wide margins. buy canada goose jacket

canadian goose jacket A fascinating point, canada goose factory sale and one that should send campaign consultants back to the drawing board. canadian goose jacket

canada goose coats Because, if it’s true, it could mean that races that were already going to be expensive and rough, such as Virginia’s 10th, will be even costlier canada goose clearance and much rougher than we imagined. canada goose coats

canada goose coats on sale The reason? Democrats will do everything possible to raise turnout among their base voters and to cheap canada goose uk capture buy canada Canada Goose Outlet goose jacket cheap a good share of the true independents. canada goose coats on sale

Canada Goose sale According canada goose store to theof the 10th the only data we have so far Democrats are already doing what’s necessary to reach both goals, long before the mud starts flying. In Monmouth’s „turnout surge“ model, in areas where „Trump is unpopular,“ Democratic canada goose uk black friday nominee Jennifer Wexton leads buy canada goose jacket Comstock 51 percent to 40 percent. Canada Goose sale

Canada Goose Jackets Another key to Bitecofer’s model, and another troubling sign for Republicans: canada goose uk shop the number of college graduates in a district. She looked at Virginia’s 2017 Canada Goose online House of Delegates races and discovered this: Canada Goose Jackets

Of the 17 Clinton districts in Virginia, Democrats won nearly all of them. They even picked up a seat in a district that broke for Trump. And the most significant factor explaining districts that flipped from those that didn’t (other than the district’s partisan advantage and challenger spending relative to incumbent spending) is the percent of college educated residents residing within the district.

canada goose clearance This is one of the factors that convinced Bitecofer to put the 7thDistrict in the „will flip“ category. So, too are the attention, money and presence of a formidable challenger, Abigail Spanberger, in the contest. canada goose clearance

canada goose black friday sale Paul Schwartzman’s profileof the 7thDistrict shows that Brat’s campaign understands what may be coming his way: canada goose black friday sale

canada goose „The fight will be brutal,“ Brat warned in a fevered appeal to Republican donors. „The Democrats will be out for political blood, and they will throw everything they have at me.“ canada goose

buy canada goose jacket cheap Indeed they are. Brat oncecomplained,“women are in my grill no matter where I go.“ Negative partisanship means they still are. The question is whether the Canada Goose Online energy can be sustained Canada Goose Outlet until November. Bitecofer argues it can and will be and that it will continue far beyond then, as Republicans demonstrated when Barack Obama was in the canada goose clearance sale White House buy canada goose jacket cheap.

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